I've been trying to write to you for 10 years. At 5:56AM Central Standard Time on Oct 26th, 2024 I managed to do it. By the end of this letter, you'll know how.

What took me so long?

I was overthinking it.

My aspirations in writing began between my lectures at Oakton Community College in 2014. From within the rustle and bustle of Calculus and Environmental Science in Des Plaines I got big ideas – and had to put them down somewhere. I chose online.

I cranked out 4 essays on my blog that year, ranging from "Readable Text on Any Background Image: My Quick Method" to "Is Calculus Really Necessary for CS Majors?"

I started browsing the internet for inspiration, but quality writing on the internet made me feel like I was competing with it all (and failing). I found myself sitting down to write and unable to produce anything I liked.

In hindsight, I fell into the Valley of Despair and never managed to ascend it.

The Dunning-Kruger effect mapped onto the individual as he becomes more competent.

The root cause?

I was constantly overthinking (and was only conscious about it ~20% of the time).

Here's what I think overthinking is all about.

Pronoia vs. Paranoia

Have you ever witnessed both ends of someone's bipolar disorder? First, they feel great. Ideas are flowing endlessly. Then, not so much. The best part are the "what-ifs". They might begin with:

  • "What if I went to the state park today?"
  • "What if I upgrade the car?"
  • "What if I could backflip, right now? Wouldn't that be great?!"

Now check on them a few hours later and notice the same behavior.

  • "What if I can't do it?"
  • "What if she won't like me?"
  • "What if I don't make the sale?"

Both personalities are addicted to "what-if". What's the difference?

The valence has flipped. The manic side is expressing possibility through pronoia (the mental posture that reality is rigged in my favor) and the depressive side is expressing possibility through paranoia (the mental posture that reality is rigged against me).

The Overthinking Cycle

Now, check if this feels familiar:

  1. You need to make a decision – to do something. But what do I do?
  2. You zoom out – well, what do I want to see? That will inform my decision.
  3. You simulate mental possibilities to get there by asking, "what if?" (from a mental posture of pronoia). One objectively stands out – the one you'd obviously recommend a friend in your position to choose.
  4. Instead of acting that choice out right away, you simulate mental possibilities of it backfiring by again asking, "what if?" (this time from a mental posture of paranoia). All of them stand out this time.
  5. Instead of immediately acting out your prescription from step 3, you resolve to cycle back to step 1 anew.

This cycle forms an interminable loop that is the basis of overthinking.

Why wasn't step 5 "Do the thing from step 3"?

The Crux of Overthinking

The fact is you're hardwired to avoid risk and harm to a much greater extent than seeking reward and happiness. Step 5 took you back to Step 1 because you were unable to justify, sell yourself on, and buy in to the path of the positive, physical action that you'd counsel a friend to take. So you fooled (deluded) yourself into believing going back to step 1 (mental action) was a form of physical action and took on the cognitive dissonance that comes with that.

We know that only physical action – the kind where we impress our will upon reality can actually change reality. And that mental action (thought) cannot until it transitions into physical action.

But when you're between a rock and a hard place the brain fabricates a contradictory belief and eats the cost of coping with its coexistence with your other normal beliefs in order to keep you going.

Overthinking necessarily involves self-deception. We fool ourselves into believing we can substitute mental action for physical action.

How to Beat It

What Got You Here Won't Get You There -Marshall Goldsmith

Remember:

  1. You are looking to do something, that is, affect reality.
  2. Physical action alone can affect reality (not mental action).
  3. Pronoia will steer you toward physical action and paranoia will steer you toward mental action.

Therefore:

  1. Learn to recognize when you've pivoted from pronoia to paranoia. The surest sign of this transition is feeling resistance to immediately taking your own advice.
  2. Focus intensely and single-mindedly on step 2 of the cycle (zoom out – what do I want to see?) long enough to feel stirred and moved by it again – a minute or so.
  3. Drive very directly and seriously into acting out what you'd advise a friend to do in your position.

Next Steps

  1. Go into your phone's notes app. Create a note entitled "Mental Posture Log" and make a bullet point list.
  2. Throughout the next week, try to look for moments of resistance to obvious advice you'd give to someone else. Note them down in one or two sentences and the date.
  3. After a few days, you should be better at noticing these. Go a little further: after noting the moment, follow it up with the imagination in step 2 above.
  4. After a few more days, you should be more comfortable and skilled at noticing and imaging, to the point that it should be changing your emotional state and mental posture suitable for physical action. Begin immediately following the imagination with that particular physical action you felt resistant to.
  5. After about 3 weeks, this process will be second nature. Drop the logging.

Thank you for your time and attention,

Sam

P.S. Next week I'm going to tell you about X